* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/17/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 58 59 60 60 60 56 55 53 54 55 58 V (KT) LAND 55 57 58 59 60 60 60 56 55 53 54 55 58 V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 57 58 57 56 55 54 54 54 55 58 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 10 7 10 11 18 20 23 19 18 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -3 -3 -4 0 3 3 0 0 -1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 305 280 283 266 260 293 288 286 271 267 253 252 232 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.9 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 138 138 138 142 145 146 149 152 151 150 147 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.9 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 60 59 59 59 60 64 62 57 55 52 54 57 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 16 16 16 15 15 14 17 17 19 21 24 850 MB ENV VOR 13 6 -1 -12 -8 -7 -28 -18 -3 -2 1 5 15 200 MB DIV 38 41 51 48 55 77 58 10 34 45 68 25 9 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -3 -1 0 0 2 0 2 4 6 9 6 LAND (KM) 553 440 339 250 206 230 209 189 147 192 350 438 486 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.5 16.0 16.7 17.3 18.5 19.5 20.1 20.7 21.3 22.0 22.7 23.4 LONG(DEG W) 152.5 153.5 154.6 155.6 156.6 158.0 158.8 159.5 160.3 161.5 163.2 164.0 164.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 10 8 5 4 6 8 7 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 12 15 26 48 51 40 31 41 35 31 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -4. -1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 1. 0. -2. -1. 0. 3. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/17/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/17/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##