* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922014 10/17/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 43 44 42 38 38 37 40 41 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 6 6 11 7 13 15 13 15 16 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 0 -2 -4 -3 -6 -3 -4 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 56 23 350 302 293 232 198 193 232 257 249 227 227 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.1 29.7 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 159 161 163 164 160 156 154 154 154 151 150 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 9 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 77 74 72 71 69 66 68 69 67 66 66 64 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 16 17 17 17 19 15 11 6 6 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 14 28 37 47 48 66 79 92 95 88 99 83 67 200 MB DIV 49 48 59 68 85 139 81 100 70 22 17 28 4 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 0 0 -1 -2 -3 0 0 2 3 4 LAND (KM) 287 222 160 104 48 -44 -160 -248 -276 -242 -197 -174 -174 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.2 14.8 15.4 16.0 17.0 18.2 19.2 19.9 20.5 20.8 20.9 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 98.7 98.8 98.9 99.0 99.1 99.3 99.4 99.7 99.6 99.6 99.3 99.1 99.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 3 2 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 33 36 39 40 33 46 47 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 23. 29. 33. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 7. 2. -4. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 18. 19. 17. 13. 13. 12. 15. 16. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922014 INVEST 10/17/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922014 INVEST 10/17/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##