* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/17/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 106 103 99 97 87 70 45 31 26 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 110 106 103 99 97 87 70 45 31 26 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 110 104 98 93 88 78 59 47 41 40 38 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 14 20 19 12 27 37 41 45 35 32 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 0 9 12 10 8 1 2 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 214 208 224 224 197 206 235 264 282 294 307 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.6 27.2 26.7 26.1 23.0 10.8 9.9 11.2 13.1 12.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 134 130 125 120 100 73 73 73 74 73 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 119 117 113 110 94 72 72 72 71 71 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.7 -53.3 -52.7 -53.3 -55.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 37 34 35 37 40 48 51 49 50 53 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 32 32 32 33 34 33 24 21 24 17 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 28 13 2 -2 -19 -44 27 84 108 93 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 97 76 55 68 99 70 25 5 12 7 -2 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 18 20 26 40 50 101 46 -12 -3 -12 15 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1072 1063 1079 992 824 499 244 1099 1009 332 123 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.9 31.3 32.7 34.6 36.5 41.5 47.3 52.1 55.3 56.7 56.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 66.5 65.6 64.7 63.5 62.3 57.7 49.6 38.5 25.5 12.6 0.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 19 21 26 36 42 42 39 35 33 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 24 15 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 13 CX,CY: 5/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -10. -19. -33. -47. -59. -68. -73. -75. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -7. -7. -10. -12. -11. -10. -7. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -18. -21. -24. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -9. -12. -10. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -11. -13. -23. -40. -65. -79. -84. -95. -99.-104. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/17/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 6.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/17/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/17/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 25( 47) 20( 57) 10( 62) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)