* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/17/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 62 63 64 63 59 54 53 47 47 48 49 V (KT) LAND 60 62 62 63 64 63 59 54 53 47 47 48 49 V (KT) LGE mod 60 63 64 64 63 60 58 55 54 53 53 54 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 8 12 13 19 25 27 22 23 20 19 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 4 0 2 -1 2 0 3 SHEAR DIR 272 278 265 250 258 290 286 274 261 255 258 232 235 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.7 28.1 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 138 138 141 144 148 149 150 151 151 151 148 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 60 58 59 61 63 64 62 58 55 55 56 60 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 16 16 16 16 15 15 17 15 18 19 21 850 MB ENV VOR 10 -1 -12 -8 -7 -15 -28 -14 -8 -14 -2 -4 5 200 MB DIV 43 57 57 63 87 67 23 20 61 39 49 26 9 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 1 2 2 -1 1 4 1 5 9 10 LAND (KM) 438 327 246 210 216 249 202 182 211 292 423 535 626 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 16.1 16.7 17.4 18.0 19.1 20.1 20.7 21.1 21.6 22.3 23.0 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 153.7 154.8 155.9 156.8 157.6 158.7 160.0 160.9 161.6 162.6 163.9 164.9 165.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 10 9 8 7 4 4 6 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 19 28 40 54 31 32 40 37 29 30 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -1. -3. 0. 2. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. -6. -7. -13. -13. -12. -11. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/17/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/17/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##