* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922014 10/17/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 37 45 51 55 55 53 51 53 54 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 37 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 29 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 9 7 5 3 2 8 6 5 5 11 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -3 -2 -1 -5 -5 -5 -6 -4 -3 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 31 15 359 5 19 105 184 189 274 290 237 227 230 SST (C) 29.3 29.6 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.0 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 160 161 162 164 163 159 156 156 154 154 155 156 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -51.9 -52.4 -51.7 -52.6 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 8 7 6 10 7 9 7 10 7 10 6 700-500 MB RH 76 73 72 69 67 69 70 68 62 59 56 53 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 12 13 12 10 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 34 42 48 59 78 84 100 100 105 91 59 33 200 MB DIV 31 31 62 71 100 112 79 79 19 12 11 -2 4 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 2 1 4 1 2 2 LAND (KM) 242 182 123 75 26 -59 -146 -202 -219 -247 -241 -237 -200 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.7 15.3 15.8 16.3 17.2 18.1 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.3 19.4 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 98.9 99.0 99.2 99.2 99.3 99.4 99.5 99.6 99.9 99.9 100.0 100.2 100.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 33 37 37 32 26 45 48 49 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 29. 33. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 12. 20. 26. 30. 30. 28. 26. 28. 29. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922014 INVEST 10/17/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 65% is 4.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 34% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 20% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922014 INVEST 10/17/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##