* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/17/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 100 96 95 91 78 56 38 27 23 19 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 105 100 96 95 91 78 56 38 27 23 19 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 105 99 93 88 84 69 53 45 42 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 25 23 14 23 32 37 42 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 6 10 12 7 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 205 219 221 199 191 217 247 271 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.2 26.7 26.1 26.0 15.1 11.6 10.3 12.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 129 125 120 121 77 74 73 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 120 116 113 109 113 75 72 71 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.1 -53.2 -53.6 -53.3 -53.8 -53.5 -53.2 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 32 33 35 37 45 52 52 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 33 32 33 34 36 28 24 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 7 -3 -3 -22 -36 18 48 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 65 69 80 122 123 42 6 -10 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 18 21 31 41 62 27 21 -50 -83 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1073 1092 1020 838 687 233 768 1362 582 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.1 32.7 34.3 36.5 38.6 44.6 50.9 54.3 55.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.6 64.6 63.5 62.0 60.5 53.9 42.9 30.9 18.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 18 22 25 32 44 44 38 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 15 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 14 CX,CY: 6/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -20. -33. -46. -57. -63. -66. -68. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -9. -11. -14. -15. -14. -12. -9. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -18. -21. -23. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. -4. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -10. -14. -27. -49. -67. -78. -82. -86. -89. -91. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/17/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/17/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/17/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 19( 41) 12( 48) 6( 51) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED