* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/17/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 68 68 66 66 63 59 58 55 58 61 63 V (KT) LAND 65 67 68 68 66 66 63 59 58 55 58 61 63 V (KT) LGE mod 65 68 69 68 67 64 61 59 58 58 59 62 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 10 15 18 18 22 24 19 21 9 15 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 0 1 4 5 1 3 -2 0 2 5 SHEAR DIR 277 271 255 270 277 276 272 256 239 244 250 214 208 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.9 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 138 140 143 146 148 150 152 153 152 151 148 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 56 56 58 60 62 64 59 54 53 54 58 59 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 17 17 16 16 16 17 19 19 22 25 28 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -18 -13 -12 -12 -25 -14 -4 -1 -2 -2 0 13 200 MB DIV 55 65 43 56 57 54 18 52 50 36 39 30 30 700-850 TADV -2 0 -1 -1 2 2 4 3 4 8 6 3 3 LAND (KM) 325 238 191 180 223 191 167 174 299 443 578 690 791 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.8 17.4 18.1 18.8 19.8 20.4 20.9 21.3 21.8 22.5 23.2 24.1 LONG(DEG W) 154.7 155.6 156.5 157.3 158.0 159.1 159.9 161.0 162.6 164.1 165.4 166.4 167.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 8 6 6 6 7 8 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 9 16 26 39 55 52 34 35 37 30 32 29 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. 1. 1. 5. 9. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 1. 1. -2. -6. -7. -10. -7. -4. -2. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/17/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/17/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##