* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922014 10/17/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 41 48 54 59 60 60 61 63 64 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 37 31 28 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 3 2 4 2 3 3 3 3 1 6 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 0 -1 -2 -4 -2 -3 -5 -5 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 24 342 14 7 118 164 129 320 313 301 192 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 162 163 163 161 160 159 160 159 158 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 73 69 69 69 73 74 69 64 64 65 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 11 10 9 8 7 6 4 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 52 54 63 70 77 87 102 117 134 106 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 65 74 108 143 111 93 72 61 45 41 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 -2 -2 -1 1 1 1 0 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 124 88 52 22 -7 -64 -84 -109 -127 -171 -227 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 2 2 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 35 30 26 12 45 46 45 46 51 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 18. 24. 29. 30. 30. 31. 33. 34. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922014 INVEST 10/17/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 76% is 5.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 60% is 6.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 41% is 6.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 41% is 9.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922014 INVEST 10/17/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##