* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/18/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 90 88 86 81 67 44 27 23 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 90 88 86 81 67 44 27 23 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 95 89 84 81 76 58 45 38 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 22 15 20 25 34 44 51 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 7 12 13 11 14 10 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 211 207 202 194 207 229 259 277 273 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 26.8 26.3 26.1 23.2 10.8 9.8 11.0 13.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 126 122 122 101 73 73 74 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 117 114 113 115 96 72 72 72 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -52.7 -51.7 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 32 33 34 37 40 50 48 43 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 33 32 32 33 34 33 25 22 26 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 6 6 -12 -8 -32 23 72 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 85 91 123 127 98 64 -11 -6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 20 36 43 82 110 78 39 -28 -78 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1081 1030 880 698 503 196 1000 1061 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.2 34.1 35.9 38.7 41.4 47.5 52.6 55.5 57.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.9 63.8 62.6 60.2 57.8 50.2 40.2 26.3 9.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 21 27 33 37 41 42 44 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 14 CX,CY: 8/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -7. -18. -29. -40. -49. -54. -56. -58. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -11. -9. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -22. -25. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -9. -12. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -7. -9. -14. -28. -51. -68. -72. -77. -81. -85. -90. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/18/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/18/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/18/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 11( 26) 8( 32) 3( 34) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)