* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/18/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 72 72 72 71 66 62 58 56 58 58 62 V (KT) LAND 70 72 72 72 72 71 66 62 58 56 58 58 62 V (KT) LGE mod 70 72 72 71 70 67 64 63 63 64 67 71 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 18 21 19 26 25 29 26 22 14 17 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 1 3 3 1 0 -2 -3 0 -3 3 SHEAR DIR 252 252 263 286 283 258 251 255 249 243 224 223 173 SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 141 144 145 148 150 152 153 152 152 150 148 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.7 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.8 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 55 59 60 62 63 62 60 57 58 57 61 61 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 16 16 17 17 18 18 19 21 23 26 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -11 -13 -9 -14 -24 -11 1 -11 -5 1 -1 24 200 MB DIV 79 46 54 55 80 26 43 27 35 33 29 14 48 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -1 0 4 7 0 5 6 3 4 7 LAND (KM) 263 234 240 264 244 223 238 314 440 566 681 774 853 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.3 17.9 18.6 19.2 19.9 20.2 20.7 21.3 22.0 22.6 23.4 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 156.2 157.0 157.8 158.4 158.9 159.9 161.1 162.5 164.0 165.3 166.4 167.2 167.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 7 7 6 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 22 30 40 50 54 33 32 40 32 33 31 25 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 739 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 9. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -4. -8. -12. -14. -12. -12. -8. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/18/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/18/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##