* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTY EP202014 10/18/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 43 46 49 58 65 68 69 69 70 71 72 V (KT) LAND 35 40 43 36 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 40 45 39 35 30 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 3 4 3 3 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 -3 -5 -7 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 11 5 16 3 141 248 218 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 163 163 162 161 159 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -52.1 -52.9 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 9 9 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 70 70 70 72 74 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 8 7 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 51 58 65 73 80 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 65 56 84 80 96 86 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -2 1 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 74 41 7 -20 -48 -84 -109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.1 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.4 17.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 99.0 99.1 99.1 99.1 99.2 99.3 99.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 3 3 3 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 29 24 45 46 46 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 26. 28. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 11. 14. 23. 30. 33. 34. 34. 35. 36. 37. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202014 TWENTY 10/18/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 80% is 6.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 69% is 8.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 56% is 9.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 50% is 11.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202014 TWENTY 10/18/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##