* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/18/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 85 83 80 74 56 38 26 26 22 19 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 90 85 83 80 74 56 38 26 25 28 29 30 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 84 79 74 66 51 42 37 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 14 19 24 25 35 46 43 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 8 10 12 11 14 8 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 215 212 204 213 218 250 267 263 228 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.2 26.0 23.5 16.3 11.2 10.0 12.4 12.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 121 121 103 79 74 73 75 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 116 112 113 98 76 72 72 73 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.5 -53.3 -53.9 -53.9 -53.4 -52.3 -50.1 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 32 34 37 40 44 51 43 49 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 33 33 34 35 30 24 24 29 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 2 -9 -36 -30 -38 30 119 175 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 85 119 127 104 81 19 -28 -13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 33 44 74 83 76 57 -43 -125 -63 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1061 889 733 561 300 612 1488 614 -43 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.7 36.0 38.2 41.1 44.0 49.5 53.8 56.3 57.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 63.8 62.0 60.3 57.1 54.0 44.7 32.7 18.7 3.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 22 27 32 37 40 42 42 42 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 16 CX,CY: 8/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -9. -19. -29. -38. -46. -50. -53. -54. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -7. -6. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -23. -26. -28. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. -2. -8. -9. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -7. -10. -16. -34. -52. -64. -64. -68. -71. -73. -75. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/18/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/18/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/18/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 9( 20) 5( 24) 0( 24) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)