* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/18/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 76 76 75 72 66 61 57 58 59 62 65 V (KT) LAND 75 76 76 76 75 72 66 61 57 58 59 62 65 V (KT) LGE mod 75 77 77 75 72 67 63 60 59 60 62 65 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 19 25 21 23 23 29 28 26 12 17 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 1 3 3 4 -2 0 -2 0 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 248 271 284 280 265 259 263 252 247 235 239 232 195 SST (C) 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 139 141 144 145 147 149 152 152 153 152 150 148 146 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.9 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 58 59 61 61 61 58 56 55 56 59 60 65 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 16 16 17 16 16 17 19 21 24 27 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -12 -13 -18 -24 -18 -15 -16 -15 -3 -10 1 37 200 MB DIV 54 56 59 90 43 14 21 39 33 19 10 30 41 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 1 2 7 -3 0 5 3 7 8 5 LAND (KM) 212 219 266 251 232 215 296 425 548 659 746 836 911 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.1 18.7 19.2 19.6 20.2 20.7 21.1 21.6 22.4 23.5 24.3 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 157.0 157.7 158.4 159.0 159.5 160.7 162.3 163.8 165.1 166.2 166.9 167.6 168.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 6 7 8 7 6 6 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 31 43 51 53 43 29 40 34 33 33 24 20 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 0. 1. 1. 5. 8. 12. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -9. -14. -18. -17. -16. -13. -10. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/18/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/18/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##