* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TRUDY EP202014 10/18/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 56 61 66 75 79 81 81 80 80 80 81 V (KT) LAND 45 42 38 34 32 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 40 35 32 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 4 3 2 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -4 -4 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 14 28 18 124 164 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 162 161 161 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 10 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 70 71 74 75 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 7 7 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 55 61 71 71 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 75 78 97 96 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 19 -3 -26 -34 -42 -58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.5 16.7 16.8 16.9 17.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 98.9 99.0 99.0 99.1 99.1 99.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 21 46 45 45 46 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 13. 17. 21. 23. 23. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 21. 30. 34. 36. 36. 35. 35. 35. 36. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202014 TRUDY 10/18/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 75% is 5.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 67% is 7.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 57% is 9.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 54% is 12.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202014 TRUDY 10/18/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##