* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/18/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 76 73 68 62 43 26 21 22 18 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 76 73 68 62 43 26 21 24 20 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 74 69 63 55 44 37 35 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 18 26 26 32 36 40 26 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 13 12 10 10 12 13 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 204 200 208 220 230 262 277 270 292 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.0 24.3 16.6 11.2 10.5 12.1 13.9 13.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 121 108 80 74 73 74 76 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 113 113 102 77 72 72 72 73 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -54.0 -54.2 -53.3 -51.6 -50.4 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 33 37 40 44 49 49 45 56 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 32 34 34 33 26 19 24 27 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 -15 -18 -37 -48 -23 39 144 220 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 119 130 96 82 61 -31 -15 20 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 39 74 79 36 27 32 -59 -108 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 918 728 546 314 201 1081 917 113 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.5 38.2 40.8 43.9 47.0 51.4 53.8 55.3 56.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.8 60.5 58.2 54.2 50.3 38.5 24.0 10.1 -3.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 26 32 37 42 43 45 43 40 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 19 CX,CY: 10/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -9. -17. -25. -32. -38. -41. -43. -45. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -24. -27. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -6. -14. -10. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -12. -18. -37. -54. -59. -58. -62. -65. -68. -70. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/18/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/18/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/18/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 4( 11) 0( 11) 0( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)