* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/18/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 68 68 68 68 65 63 62 63 67 70 73 76 V (KT) LAND 70 68 68 68 68 65 63 62 63 67 70 73 76 V (KT) LGE mod 70 69 67 65 62 58 55 54 54 56 60 65 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 25 22 19 24 25 30 18 15 11 9 4 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 2 7 3 0 0 4 0 -2 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 264 281 278 260 268 269 262 238 241 211 222 198 226 SST (C) 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 144 146 147 148 152 152 152 153 152 149 146 144 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -53.4 -52.6 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 9 9 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 57 58 60 62 60 57 55 55 59 62 63 65 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 16 17 17 16 17 19 20 23 26 28 31 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -9 -18 -16 -32 -19 -12 -10 -1 4 12 8 18 200 MB DIV 58 56 79 29 5 34 41 64 33 25 5 48 12 700-850 TADV 1 -1 1 2 4 3 1 5 8 2 3 5 11 LAND (KM) 214 271 255 256 233 280 418 536 628 725 860 912 911 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.7 19.2 19.6 19.9 20.4 20.7 21.1 21.9 22.9 24.1 25.1 25.9 LONG(DEG W) 157.7 158.5 159.2 159.8 160.4 161.9 163.6 164.9 165.9 166.8 167.9 168.1 167.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 7 8 7 6 6 7 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 40 52 57 39 29 38 37 36 35 28 23 25 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -9. -12. -14. -14. -14. -13. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 19. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -7. -3. 0. 3. 6. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/18/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/18/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##