* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/18/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 76 71 65 56 39 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 76 71 65 56 39 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 74 65 56 50 41 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 26 30 31 36 39 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 11 9 10 15 9 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 200 212 216 229 244 263 257 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 23.5 16.0 11.1 11.1 10.5 13.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 103 79 74 74 73 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 116 98 76 72 72 72 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -54.2 -54.3 -53.6 -52.4 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 40 45 50 52 46 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 33 34 34 31 25 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -20 -17 -54 -33 4 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 126 102 85 53 2 -30 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 80 92 29 38 45 -36 -140 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 699 509 278 213 583 1437 382 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.2 41.3 44.3 47.1 49.9 52.8 54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.0 58.0 55.0 50.1 45.2 31.6 15.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 34 38 41 44 44 47 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 30 CX,CY: 15/ 26 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -8. -12. -21. -28. -34. -38. -42. -44. -45. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 13. 15. 17. 18. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -17. -21. -25. -28. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -1. -6. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -15. -24. -41. -51. -60. -68. -73. -77. -81. -84. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/18/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 7.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/18/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/18/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 4( 11) 0( 11) 0( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)