* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/18/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 65 61 58 56 56 57 57 59 61 65 70 72 V (KT) LAND 70 65 61 58 56 56 57 57 59 61 65 70 72 V (KT) LGE mod 70 67 64 60 58 54 52 51 52 55 57 59 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 22 19 24 27 26 24 22 16 22 13 10 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 8 5 0 0 4 0 3 0 4 3 2 SHEAR DIR 284 280 262 273 278 260 258 245 224 228 221 207 254 SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.3 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 148 149 150 152 152 154 152 150 149 146 142 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.2 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 7 6 4 700-500 MB RH 60 60 63 60 56 54 54 56 57 57 62 62 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 16 16 17 18 19 20 20 22 26 28 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -20 -14 -26 -31 0 -6 1 6 -4 0 12 -4 200 MB DIV 59 78 40 -2 -3 58 39 36 28 9 9 20 12 700-850 TADV 2 5 6 4 0 -8 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 2 LAND (KM) 257 242 246 240 258 370 504 611 722 818 911 979 1049 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.4 19.7 20.0 20.2 20.5 20.8 21.5 22.6 23.6 24.5 25.8 27.3 LONG(DEG W) 158.5 159.3 160.0 160.7 161.4 163.0 164.5 165.7 166.8 167.6 168.3 168.5 168.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 56 55 33 29 34 39 38 36 29 24 25 25 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 11. 17. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -7. -6. -4. -1. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -12. -14. -14. -13. -13. -11. -9. -5. 0. 2. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/18/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/18/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##