* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TRUDY EP202014 10/18/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 35 37 39 46 49 52 55 57 59 62 67 V (KT) LAND 35 31 29 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 31 29 28 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 4 4 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -7 -7 -7 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 329 309 307 281 273 262 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 160 160 159 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 74 77 79 78 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 7 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 69 71 72 70 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 54 83 75 83 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -89 -109 -129 -119 -109 -129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.3 17.5 17.4 17.3 17.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 98.5 98.5 98.5 98.5 98.5 98.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 0 1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 47 46 46 46 46 46 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 5 CX,CY: 2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 2. 4. 11. 14. 17. 20. 22. 24. 27. 32. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202014 TRUDY 10/18/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202014 TRUDY 10/18/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##