* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/19/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 74 67 58 48 33 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 74 67 58 48 33 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 72 62 54 48 39 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 29 35 31 37 39 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 12 10 18 14 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 204 209 224 245 255 263 224 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.0 16.2 11.0 11.1 10.4 11.8 13.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 106 79 74 74 73 74 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 101 76 72 72 72 72 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.4 -54.5 -53.8 -53.3 -51.6 -49.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 45 49 51 49 42 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 32 33 31 27 24 26 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -13 -19 -33 -12 31 176 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 100 95 53 -2 -29 -8 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 69 36 48 59 8 -83 -180 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 515 289 139 594 1058 955 292 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 41.0 44.2 47.4 49.5 51.6 53.9 57.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 58.5 54.8 51.0 44.9 38.9 24.6 11.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 38 42 43 45 44 44 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 34 CX,CY: 22/ 26 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -16. -24. -31. -37. -42. -45. -47. -49. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 18. 19. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -18. -23. -26. -29. -32. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -3. -7. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -22. -32. -47. -54. -64. -73. -79. -83. -86. -85. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/19/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -1.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.3/ -0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/19/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/19/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 3( 10) 0( 10) 0( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED