* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/19/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 70 69 68 67 63 61 60 58 60 60 63 V (KT) LAND 70 70 70 69 68 67 63 61 60 58 60 60 63 V (KT) LGE mod 70 69 68 66 63 59 56 54 55 57 60 64 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 25 24 28 29 33 29 23 20 18 16 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 6 6 2 -3 0 -2 -2 -6 -4 1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 271 261 266 271 267 252 254 234 235 244 227 241 244 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 147 148 150 152 152 152 150 148 146 143 138 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.6 -53.5 -54.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 60 61 60 57 55 51 51 52 55 58 61 64 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 16 15 16 16 17 19 20 22 24 26 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -25 -28 -28 -20 -15 -19 -12 -15 -16 -18 -25 -14 200 MB DIV 75 41 -3 -12 23 17 36 26 12 0 12 19 51 700-850 TADV 7 3 2 0 -2 -5 3 4 6 6 7 8 8 LAND (KM) 206 205 182 188 205 323 457 557 644 747 865 955 1031 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.0 20.3 20.4 20.5 20.9 21.5 22.4 23.4 24.5 25.5 26.7 27.9 LONG(DEG W) 159.0 159.5 160.1 160.5 161.0 162.7 164.2 165.2 165.9 166.6 167.4 167.7 167.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 7 8 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 56 42 30 29 32 37 28 29 25 17 22 21 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -9. -13. -16. -18. -19. -21. -21. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 12. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -9. -10. -12. -10. -10. -7. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/19/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/19/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##