* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TRUDY EP202014 10/19/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 22 21 22 23 26 30 34 38 40 43 48 54 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 8 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -5 -7 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 304 308 288 269 258 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 159 159 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 79 82 81 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 67 71 69 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 67 77 80 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -118 -127 -136 -136 -135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.3 17.4 17.4 17.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 98.3 98.2 98.1 98.0 97.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 44 44 47 47 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -11. -9. -8. -7. -5. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -3. -2. 1. 5. 9. 13. 15. 18. 23. 29. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202014 TRUDY 10/19/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202014 TRUDY 10/19/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##