* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/19/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 68 60 51 42 27 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 68 60 51 42 27 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 68 61 55 49 42 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 37 42 37 46 39 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 3 6 10 7 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 216 235 248 262 261 253 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 15.5 10.6 11.4 9.6 10.3 13.0 12.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 78 73 74 73 73 75 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 75 72 72 72 72 73 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.8 -54.4 -53.7 -52.6 -50.3 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 49 52 48 44 51 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 28 24 21 17 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -34 -1 3 17 119 175 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 86 44 -17 -13 -2 10 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 38 47 -8 2 -33 -190 -73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 258 228 644 1144 1386 438 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 44.5 47.7 50.8 52.4 54.0 55.8 59.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 54.8 49.7 44.7 37.9 31.2 16.0 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 47 46 45 44 44 46 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 45 CX,CY: 29/ 34 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -4. -8. -13. -17. -24. -30. -35. -39. -42. -44. -45. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 15. 16. 19. 20. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -24. -27. -31. -33. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -6. -12. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. -19. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -15. -24. -33. -48. -50. -61. -70. -75. -79. -82. -80. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/19/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.4/ -0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -2.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.3/ -0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/19/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/19/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 0( 5) 0( 5) 0( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED