* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/19/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 69 69 69 68 69 69 66 68 69 71 75 V (KT) LAND 70 69 69 69 69 68 69 69 66 68 69 71 75 V (KT) LGE mod 70 69 68 66 63 59 57 56 58 60 63 65 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 27 29 31 31 28 19 17 16 11 8 5 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 1 -2 -2 -1 2 -2 1 -1 3 3 0 SHEAR DIR 276 272 270 266 256 250 227 249 229 237 184 214 255 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 149 150 151 153 152 150 149 146 143 139 135 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.0 -53.2 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 60 57 54 51 50 47 48 50 54 58 64 67 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 16 16 16 16 18 19 19 21 24 26 28 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -48 -29 -24 -21 -26 -22 -23 -24 -17 0 -20 -19 200 MB DIV 45 1 0 22 36 27 26 0 18 5 34 27 43 700-850 TADV 3 5 3 -1 -7 0 5 4 3 3 2 6 11 LAND (KM) 169 166 147 177 225 367 505 622 711 797 892 995 1094 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.4 20.7 20.9 21.0 21.4 22.3 23.3 24.3 25.4 26.5 27.6 28.7 LONG(DEG W) 159.2 159.8 160.3 161.0 161.7 163.3 164.7 165.7 166.3 166.7 167.1 167.5 167.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 7 7 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 47 34 31 34 39 32 31 29 19 17 15 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. -15. -15. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 7. 7. 11. 15. 17. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -4. -2. -1. 1. 5. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/19/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/19/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##