* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/19/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 67 57 49 41 30 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 67 57 49 41 30 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 68 61 55 50 43 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 36 37 40 43 42 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 10 6 9 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 237 255 263 264 258 236 201 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 10.4 11.4 10.0 10.5 12.1 13.4 13.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 73 74 73 73 74 75 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 72 72 72 72 72 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.1 -53.5 -52.9 -51.8 -49.4 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 51 50 47 46 61 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 25 22 20 18 15 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -23 0 3 100 160 215 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 0 -21 -9 7 54 -43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 45 38 34 -49 -104 -170 -53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 202 643 1089 1363 835 107 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 47.8 49.9 52.0 53.5 54.9 57.6 59.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.1 44.4 38.6 30.7 22.8 7.9 -4.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 44 43 46 49 46 38 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 45 CX,CY: 34/ 29 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -4. -9. -13. -17. -24. -30. -36. -40. -43. -45. -46. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 18. 19. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -24. -27. -31. -33. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -6. -10. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. 0. 0. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 15. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -17. -20. -22. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -18. -26. -34. -45. -50. -62. -72. -76. -81. -83. -80. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/19/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.4/ -0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -2.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.3/ -0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/19/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/19/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 0( 5) 0( 5) 0( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)