* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922014 10/19/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 49 53 55 57 59 58 56 50 46 43 43 V (KT) LAND 40 44 49 53 55 57 59 58 56 50 46 43 43 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 47 49 51 54 58 61 62 60 57 56 57 Storm Type EXTP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 36 29 16 11 14 15 18 21 27 32 23 23 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 -3 -1 -2 -6 -5 -7 -7 -4 -3 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 190 188 189 73 43 8 4 351 357 351 335 314 273 SST (C) 23.8 23.4 23.1 23.1 23.2 23.8 24.1 24.0 23.6 23.2 23.0 22.9 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 94 93 92 93 93 96 96 96 94 89 89 90 89 ADJ. POT. INT. 80 82 80 82 82 84 81 82 80 76 76 79 79 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.8 -55.2 -56.3 -57.8 -58.9 -58.9 -58.4 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 3 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 52 54 51 50 46 49 54 55 57 58 58 51 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 25 26 27 27 25 24 21 19 16 14 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 166 169 173 199 199 203 197 175 150 115 97 97 88 200 MB DIV 19 4 -12 -20 -19 -29 -9 7 9 1 5 -5 -1 700-850 TADV -16 -4 3 8 3 1 4 0 -1 1 1 -1 -8 LAND (KM) 858 942 1027 1124 1226 1383 1458 1530 1654 1741 1735 1599 1410 LAT (DEG N) 32.6 33.4 34.2 34.3 34.3 33.4 32.7 33.3 34.7 35.7 35.9 35.6 35.8 LONG(DEG W) 20.1 20.5 20.9 22.2 23.5 26.0 27.4 27.9 28.5 29.0 28.8 27.3 24.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 9 8 11 11 9 4 6 6 3 4 8 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):190/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 795 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -3. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 15. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 15. 17. 19. 18. 16. 10. 6. 3. 3. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922014 INVEST 10/19/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922014 INVEST 10/19/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)