* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/19/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 69 69 68 67 68 68 69 69 70 72 72 V (KT) LAND 70 69 69 69 68 67 68 68 69 69 70 72 72 V (KT) LGE mod 70 70 68 67 65 61 60 60 62 65 67 69 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 30 31 33 32 28 21 15 13 11 10 6 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 -1 -1 0 -2 0 -4 -4 2 -1 1 4 SHEAR DIR 273 273 269 258 247 246 224 252 228 166 217 224 241 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.0 27.3 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 151 152 153 153 151 150 148 147 143 137 124 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 57 55 53 51 50 52 52 57 60 62 63 68 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 14 16 17 20 22 24 26 27 850 MB ENV VOR -50 -40 -33 -27 -27 -22 -25 -29 -21 -12 -11 -10 4 200 MB DIV 2 -3 30 50 37 54 12 17 4 30 17 36 34 700-850 TADV 8 4 -1 -10 -6 3 5 3 4 2 4 16 23 LAND (KM) 144 139 174 241 319 463 624 761 885 989 1099 1219 1371 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 20.8 21.0 21.2 21.3 22.0 22.9 23.7 24.6 25.6 26.8 28.6 30.7 LONG(DEG W) 159.6 160.4 161.1 162.0 162.8 164.3 165.8 167.0 168.0 168.7 169.3 169.5 169.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 37 32 36 39 35 30 31 22 20 19 13 9 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -14. -15. -16. -17. -16. -16. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 17. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/19/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/19/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##