* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/19/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 62 54 46 41 35 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 62 54 46 41 35 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 64 58 52 48 42 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 40 43 50 42 34 17 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 10 8 11 11 19 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 244 254 263 253 242 200 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 11.4 9.6 10.0 12.0 13.1 11.9 9.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 74 73 73 74 75 71 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 72 72 72 72 73 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.2 -52.1 -51.1 -50.3 -49.4 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 50 44 48 55 69 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 22 20 17 16 21 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 16 25 118 128 188 191 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 -11 -22 5 16 52 -103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 71 9 -33 -116 -208 -126 -47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 621 1098 1455 865 362 180 808 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 50.7 52.5 54.2 55.2 56.1 59.8 65.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.0 38.6 32.3 23.2 14.2 3.1 2.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 45 42 47 53 43 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 45 CX,CY: 37/ 26 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -4. -8. -12. -15. -22. -28. -32. -35. -38. -39. -41. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. -2. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 18. 19. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -24. -27. -31. -33. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -6. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 3. 2. 1. 3. 5. 9. 19. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -18. -21. -23. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -16. -24. -29. -35. -44. -56. -65. -69. -73. -75. -70. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/19/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.5/ -0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 2.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.2/ -0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/19/14 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/19/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED