* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/19/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 63 61 61 63 62 64 66 66 68 68 68 V (KT) LAND 65 64 63 61 61 63 62 64 66 66 68 68 68 V (KT) LGE mod 65 63 62 60 59 56 55 56 59 63 67 70 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 32 36 35 32 24 22 19 12 9 6 15 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 -1 0 0 -2 0 1 5 -2 -2 4 SHEAR DIR 280 273 259 254 253 240 256 234 234 202 319 277 271 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.4 27.9 27.1 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 152 153 153 154 152 148 147 147 143 135 126 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.6 -53.5 -54.2 -53.8 -54.0 -53.6 -54.1 -54.1 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 56 53 53 52 51 53 53 55 56 58 61 60 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 14 13 14 14 13 15 17 19 21 21 21 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -32 -21 -29 -24 -19 -32 -24 -31 -22 -10 2 12 200 MB DIV 8 33 37 26 19 33 2 22 20 26 59 40 11 700-850 TADV 5 0 -7 -8 -4 0 -1 0 0 1 5 10 25 LAND (KM) 153 193 267 342 420 587 792 890 914 1003 1203 1288 1329 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 20.9 21.1 21.2 21.3 22.0 23.3 24.1 24.6 25.5 27.1 28.8 30.7 LONG(DEG W) 160.2 161.2 162.2 163.0 163.8 165.5 167.4 168.2 168.3 168.9 170.3 170.2 169.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 9 8 8 10 8 4 4 7 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 31 35 38 34 31 34 23 19 20 19 10 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. -16. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 3. 5. 8. 11. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -3. -1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/19/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/19/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##