* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922014 10/20/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 45 45 46 46 46 44 42 42 41 41 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 45 45 46 46 46 44 42 42 41 41 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 43 45 48 53 57 59 60 58 58 59 61 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 8 8 15 20 19 18 23 31 25 23 24 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -5 -6 -7 -7 -5 -5 -3 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 194 76 14 1 353 351 338 351 347 333 302 277 265 SST (C) 23.5 23.2 22.9 23.0 23.2 23.7 23.9 23.8 23.6 23.6 23.7 23.7 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 93 93 91 92 93 95 94 94 91 92 94 95 97 ADJ. POT. INT. 80 82 80 82 82 82 80 80 76 77 81 83 85 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.9 -54.8 -54.7 -54.4 -54.4 -54.8 -55.8 -57.2 -58.7 -58.9 -58.5 -58.6 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 53 54 52 49 50 53 54 55 56 54 50 45 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 27 26 25 23 20 18 16 13 12 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 167 184 185 178 182 199 182 162 137 111 91 95 78 200 MB DIV -2 -9 -2 -14 -35 -14 4 0 -6 7 -3 0 -8 700-850 TADV 1 6 1 1 0 2 0 -1 1 1 0 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 891 1009 1126 1228 1337 1479 1563 1668 1743 1730 1615 1442 1238 LAT (DEG N) 33.2 34.0 34.7 34.7 34.6 33.7 33.6 34.5 35.2 35.1 34.4 33.6 33.0 LONG(DEG W) 20.0 20.9 21.8 23.2 24.7 27.0 28.1 28.8 29.3 29.2 28.2 26.6 24.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 11 10 12 11 8 4 5 2 3 7 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 13. 16. 19. 22. 23. 25. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -18. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 2. 1. 1. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922014 INVEST 10/20/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922014 INVEST 10/20/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)