* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/20/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 55 55 57 59 63 65 67 67 69 66 67 V (KT) LAND 60 57 55 55 57 59 63 65 67 67 69 66 67 V (KT) LGE mod 60 57 55 53 52 50 50 52 56 59 61 61 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 33 37 37 31 26 23 16 14 14 15 19 23 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -5 -2 0 -2 -1 -2 0 0 -1 0 6 SHEAR DIR 267 259 253 241 231 247 228 207 200 240 258 282 258 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.1 26.3 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 152 153 153 153 150 147 144 140 133 126 115 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -52.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -54.2 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 9 8 6 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 52 51 49 49 51 47 51 56 57 60 66 69 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 16 17 16 18 19 21 23 25 26 27 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -23 -26 -19 -11 -27 -34 -21 -5 -15 -36 -38 -22 200 MB DIV 43 32 13 14 51 18 12 7 18 -8 37 8 58 700-850 TADV 1 -2 -2 1 3 4 0 2 2 2 9 20 30 LAND (KM) 182 231 296 377 465 620 741 852 960 1056 1153 1245 1334 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 20.9 21.1 21.4 21.7 22.6 23.7 25.0 26.5 27.8 29.1 30.5 32.0 LONG(DEG W) 160.9 161.7 162.5 163.4 164.3 165.8 166.8 167.5 167.9 168.1 168.2 168.0 167.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 31 38 37 32 30 32 23 19 17 7 7 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. -16. -18. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 10. 13. 17. 17. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 9. 6. 7. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/20/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/20/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##