* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922014 10/20/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 44 45 46 47 46 44 44 44 45 46 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 44 45 46 47 46 44 44 44 45 46 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 43 46 48 53 57 60 61 63 64 67 68 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 15 20 20 18 20 24 29 24 22 22 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 -3 -6 -7 -7 -7 -2 -3 0 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 74 40 1 354 355 335 336 350 334 310 302 282 268 SST (C) 23.1 23.0 23.0 23.1 23.2 23.6 24.0 24.3 24.5 24.7 24.9 24.9 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 91 92 92 92 93 94 96 97 99 102 105 106 102 ADJ. POT. INT. 79 80 80 81 81 82 81 81 84 88 92 95 92 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.3 -55.2 -54.8 -54.6 -55.0 -55.8 -56.9 -57.9 -58.6 -58.8 -58.7 -58.9 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 51 49 49 49 51 52 51 51 50 43 41 42 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 27 26 25 23 21 18 15 13 11 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 185 188 175 182 186 180 162 147 128 120 96 86 73 200 MB DIV -10 5 -14 -31 -15 -14 6 -7 -24 -27 -2 -5 8 700-850 TADV 4 1 0 0 4 0 1 0 0 1 2 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1034 1134 1234 1323 1417 1603 1741 1809 1806 1710 1501 1197 959 LAT (DEG N) 34.2 34.5 34.8 34.7 34.6 34.5 34.5 34.4 33.8 32.4 31.0 30.6 31.6 LONG(DEG W) 21.0 22.1 23.2 24.4 25.7 28.0 29.7 30.6 30.9 30.5 28.8 25.5 22.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 10 10 10 8 5 4 5 8 12 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 2. -1. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 17. 21. 24. 25. 27. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -15. -18. -19. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. 14. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922014 INVEST 10/20/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922014 INVEST 10/20/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)