* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932014 10/20/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 25 27 29 29 29 29 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 25 27 29 29 29 29 26 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 18 18 21 25 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 27 28 32 32 26 25 18 20 23 25 23 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 0 0 4 2 0 -1 0 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 282 281 275 268 266 261 263 264 247 219 221 224 232 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 156 155 155 153 150 151 150 150 152 154 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 140 138 138 137 133 129 131 132 132 134 136 135 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 8 8 7 8 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 80 79 80 81 80 78 75 69 65 63 61 56 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 7 6 7 8 8 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 66 71 76 69 64 56 31 24 -10 -26 -49 -39 200 MB DIV 72 22 41 41 19 35 21 23 37 21 10 -15 -7 700-850 TADV 3 1 0 2 2 0 -2 0 -2 6 2 3 1 LAND (KM) 69 76 82 92 103 105 93 73 5 -58 -122 -211 -276 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.9 20.2 20.6 20.9 21.4 21.7 21.7 21.5 21.4 21.3 21.2 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 95.5 95.6 95.8 95.9 96.0 96.2 96.3 96.5 97.2 98.0 98.8 99.7 100.4 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 4 4 3 2 1 2 4 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 19 21 25 27 28 28 27 27 4 33 32 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 0. -5. -9. -13. -16. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 7. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932014 INVEST 10/20/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932014 INVEST 10/20/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932014 INVEST 10/20/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)