* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/20/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 57 58 61 68 74 81 81 84 84 82 83 V (KT) LAND 60 58 57 58 61 68 74 81 81 84 84 82 83 V (KT) LGE mod 60 58 57 56 55 55 58 65 73 79 79 75 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 33 35 27 25 21 7 6 6 11 10 16 18 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 1 0 -1 0 -2 -7 -3 -1 0 4 6 SHEAR DIR 257 251 243 223 229 214 247 229 235 260 261 267 261 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.5 26.7 25.9 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 153 153 153 152 149 146 143 138 129 121 112 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -52.6 -53.3 -52.3 -52.3 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 7 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 48 48 48 48 49 50 49 52 56 58 61 62 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 17 18 20 20 23 23 26 27 27 28 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -31 -25 -20 -18 -25 -35 -31 -23 -47 -51 2 64 200 MB DIV 22 18 25 50 49 -20 1 0 23 11 33 33 52 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 4 1 2 0 1 4 10 20 38 27 LAND (KM) 252 321 402 481 566 708 830 920 998 1096 1204 1302 1393 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.0 21.2 21.7 22.1 23.1 24.4 25.7 27.0 28.4 29.8 31.2 32.6 LONG(DEG W) 161.8 162.7 163.6 164.5 165.3 166.6 167.5 167.9 168.0 168.1 168.2 168.0 167.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 37 36 32 31 33 27 19 19 15 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -5. -5. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 8. 12. 11. 15. 18. 17. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -2. 1. 8. 14. 21. 21. 24. 24. 22. 23. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/20/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/20/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##