* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922014 10/20/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 50 51 52 51 50 48 48 48 48 51 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 50 51 52 51 50 48 48 48 48 51 V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 50 52 54 58 60 61 60 59 60 62 65 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 16 20 20 20 18 20 28 20 23 24 23 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -7 -8 -8 -7 -3 -5 -2 -3 -1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 59 15 2 351 341 327 352 348 338 310 293 294 304 SST (C) 23.1 23.3 23.4 23.5 23.6 23.7 23.5 23.2 22.8 22.6 22.9 23.4 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 91 93 93 94 94 93 92 90 87 86 89 93 96 ADJ. POT. INT. 80 81 81 82 81 80 79 77 74 73 77 80 83 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.8 -54.7 -54.7 -54.8 -55.5 -56.3 -57.5 -59.3 -59.7 -59.2 -59.1 -58.6 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 48 48 51 54 53 54 58 58 56 53 47 39 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 27 26 25 23 20 17 14 12 11 10 12 850 MB ENV VOR 223 214 211 208 214 192 169 139 116 112 100 93 96 200 MB DIV -1 -11 -36 -18 -13 -1 -2 -4 7 -12 -10 -17 -33 700-850 TADV 1 2 1 3 3 2 0 0 2 -2 -5 -3 2 LAND (KM) 1122 1206 1292 1368 1438 1529 1617 1701 1745 1722 1652 1536 1432 LAT (DEG N) 33.6 33.6 33.6 33.4 33.1 33.1 34.0 35.0 35.6 35.8 35.2 34.0 32.5 LONG(DEG W) 22.7 23.8 24.8 25.8 26.9 28.0 28.5 28.9 29.1 28.7 28.2 27.5 27.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 9 7 5 5 4 2 2 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 15. 19. 23. 27. 28. 30. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -13. -16. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -17. -19. -19. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 3. 3. 3. 6. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922014 INVEST 10/20/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922014 INVEST 10/20/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)