* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932014 10/20/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 32 34 36 39 39 38 39 39 39 39 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 32 34 36 39 39 38 32 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 29 29 30 29 29 30 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 25 26 27 24 23 16 15 12 17 17 14 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 1 2 5 1 -3 -2 -3 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 282 275 270 265 262 248 258 238 244 195 192 200 193 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 157 156 156 155 156 157 156 155 157 162 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 138 138 137 137 134 136 140 141 142 145 151 151 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -53.3 -52.8 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 8 8 7 6 8 6 9 7 10 7 9 7 700-500 MB RH 81 82 83 81 79 78 75 71 67 68 66 61 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 9 11 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 71 79 76 80 72 63 57 38 27 5 -11 -6 200 MB DIV 44 47 56 46 40 35 36 30 43 30 7 11 7 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 6 7 5 3 LAND (KM) 79 98 118 129 140 166 178 145 40 -62 -199 -109 -16 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.9 20.2 20.4 20.6 20.9 20.8 20.2 19.3 18.6 17.8 17.3 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 95.4 95.4 95.4 95.4 95.4 95.3 95.1 95.1 95.7 96.4 97.4 98.5 99.7 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 2 2 2 1 2 4 5 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 20 22 23 24 25 26 25 23 18 38 42 48 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 22. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 14. 14. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932014 INVEST 10/20/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932014 INVEST 10/20/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932014 INVEST 10/20/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED