* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922014 10/20/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 51 52 52 50 48 48 47 48 48 46 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 51 52 52 50 48 48 47 48 48 46 V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 51 53 56 58 58 58 59 61 64 66 68 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 21 19 21 17 24 27 29 25 29 22 15 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -7 -7 -9 -7 -6 -5 -4 -1 -1 -1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 12 360 350 346 345 344 339 328 317 304 307 344 10 SST (C) 23.2 23.3 23.2 23.0 22.9 22.7 22.7 23.2 23.7 24.3 24.7 25.4 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 92 93 93 93 92 89 87 90 94 99 102 107 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 81 82 83 83 81 78 74 76 80 85 88 93 98 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.0 -55.0 -55.3 -55.8 -56.8 -58.1 -59.2 -59.5 -59.4 -58.7 -57.4 -56.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 50 52 53 52 50 49 50 48 43 36 29 23 19 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 26 25 24 21 18 15 14 12 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 220 212 203 198 175 130 125 103 98 84 80 51 16 200 MB DIV -6 -29 -19 -17 -16 -15 -16 -12 -40 -21 -40 -56 -68 700-850 TADV 1 0 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 -2 0 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 1148 1257 1367 1520 1673 1917 2017 2009 1957 1934 1913 1904 1906 LAT (DEG N) 33.5 33.8 34.1 34.7 35.3 36.1 36.1 35.6 34.7 33.4 31.9 30.3 28.9 LONG(DEG W) 23.1 24.3 25.4 26.9 28.4 30.9 32.1 32.3 32.2 32.6 33.1 33.6 34.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 12 14 12 8 3 3 6 7 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -2. -5. -7. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 14. 18. 22. 26. 29. 30. 30. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -17. -18. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -15. -17. -18. -19. -18. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 1. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922014 INVEST 10/20/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922014 INVEST 10/20/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)