* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932014 10/20/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 36 38 41 42 41 41 41 43 46 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 36 38 41 35 30 28 27 27 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 29 30 30 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 27 25 25 24 19 12 14 13 9 11 5 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 2 2 3 0 0 0 5 -2 5 0 SHEAR DIR 275 274 266 261 262 259 254 243 217 222 216 215 200 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 156 155 156 154 155 154 154 155 157 157 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 137 137 135 135 134 136 139 139 142 145 146 146 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 8 7 9 8 9 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 82 82 81 78 76 76 70 68 65 65 61 57 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 10 11 12 11 11 11 13 15 850 MB ENV VOR 71 83 79 79 70 71 47 43 19 9 -30 -32 -43 200 MB DIV 49 47 37 45 45 37 29 47 23 -7 1 -10 -4 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 -1 -4 0 -2 2 LAND (KM) 77 85 93 94 95 83 50 -31 -147 -257 -150 -49 5 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.1 20.4 20.5 20.6 20.7 20.6 20.1 19.5 18.9 18.4 18.2 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 95.6 95.7 95.8 95.8 95.9 96.1 96.4 97.0 97.9 98.8 100.1 101.5 102.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 5 5 6 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 22 24 25 25 26 26 26 39 31 0 52 46 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 16. 17. 16. 16. 16. 18. 21. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932014 INVEST 10/20/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932014 INVEST 10/20/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932014 INVEST 10/20/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)