* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/20/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 51 53 56 62 71 73 74 74 72 66 60 V (KT) LAND 55 52 51 53 56 62 71 73 74 74 72 66 60 V (KT) LGE mod 55 53 52 51 50 52 55 59 61 61 58 52 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 25 24 18 12 7 6 6 1 10 17 24 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -4 -3 3 0 6 7 3 SHEAR DIR 230 223 228 216 209 193 125 118 78 273 277 287 291 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.7 26.8 25.0 23.3 20.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 148 148 147 146 145 144 140 132 115 98 71 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.2 -52.0 -51.3 -50.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 8 5 3 0 700-500 MB RH 47 49 46 47 49 47 47 47 51 59 65 63 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 20 20 22 25 26 28 28 27 27 26 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -11 -17 -14 -20 -29 -37 -39 -42 -40 -23 7 141 200 MB DIV 25 61 22 19 12 12 -5 8 0 37 30 64 46 700-850 TADV 3 6 7 5 2 -1 0 2 6 20 33 48 25 LAND (KM) 428 492 561 613 670 784 894 988 1080 1147 1226 1362 1609 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.1 21.4 22.0 22.5 23.4 24.6 25.8 27.1 28.8 30.9 33.6 36.6 LONG(DEG W) 163.7 164.5 165.2 165.8 166.3 167.3 168.1 168.6 168.9 168.4 167.2 164.7 161.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 6 7 7 8 10 14 19 20 HEAT CONTENT 32 33 36 35 31 21 19 19 9 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 4. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 11. 13. 16. 16. 16. 15. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -2. 1. 7. 16. 18. 19. 19. 17. 11. 5. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/20/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/20/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##