* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922014 10/21/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 43 44 44 41 40 42 42 43 43 38 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 43 44 44 41 40 42 42 43 43 38 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 41 43 45 48 50 51 54 58 60 61 60 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 23 22 26 29 30 26 29 27 24 29 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -8 -7 -6 -7 -5 -5 -2 0 2 -3 -3 -9 SHEAR DIR 14 356 357 347 339 350 336 321 303 312 330 12 9 SST (C) 23.3 23.2 23.1 22.9 22.8 22.5 22.5 22.9 23.6 24.3 24.8 25.4 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 93 93 93 91 90 87 86 88 94 99 103 107 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 81 82 82 81 79 76 74 76 81 85 88 92 96 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.1 -55.3 -55.9 -56.1 -57.3 -58.6 -59.6 -59.5 -59.1 -58.0 -57.0 -55.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 53 53 53 53 52 53 52 44 38 30 22 19 17 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 25 24 23 20 16 14 13 12 11 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 216 202 199 179 164 126 108 103 88 71 35 -17 -30 200 MB DIV -23 -15 -7 -16 -8 -5 -21 -25 -28 -47 -45 -65 -43 700-850 TADV -1 0 3 0 0 -1 0 -2 -4 0 -2 -1 -5 LAND (KM) 1172 1300 1428 1549 1670 1843 1934 1967 1958 1973 2012 2041 2003 LAT (DEG N) 33.5 34.0 34.5 35.0 35.4 36.1 36.3 35.9 34.9 33.5 32.2 30.8 29.5 LONG(DEG W) 23.4 24.6 25.9 27.1 28.3 30.0 31.0 31.6 32.1 33.0 34.1 34.9 35.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 11 11 9 6 3 4 7 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. -1. -4. -8. -10. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 15. 19. 24. 28. 30. 31. 31. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -18. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -15. -16. -18. -18. -16. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. -2. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922014 INVEST 10/21/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922014 INVEST 10/21/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)