* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932014 10/21/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 30 32 34 37 41 43 48 50 53 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 30 32 34 29 27 27 34 36 39 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 25 26 27 33 38 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 26 25 20 21 16 15 9 8 4 10 10 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 1 1 1 1 -6 0 -3 -2 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 270 270 267 258 250 255 239 251 197 214 213 239 229 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.6 29.9 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 157 158 158 159 152 151 151 152 161 167 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 139 141 142 143 145 138 136 136 138 150 157 156 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -52.8 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 8 8 5 8 6 8 7 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 83 82 79 79 80 78 75 73 73 68 63 52 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 9 11 10 10 11 11 12 13 16 850 MB ENV VOR 80 72 68 67 66 71 66 65 79 84 115 93 104 200 MB DIV 60 40 38 51 53 58 56 50 42 55 30 4 21 700-850 TADV 0 2 1 1 0 0 -4 0 -2 0 -4 -5 -7 LAND (KM) 85 98 112 133 122 100 16 -107 -127 -22 143 288 326 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 5 7 6 5 5 6 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 21 20 20 18 29 36 47 86 63 64 90 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 12. 16. 18. 23. 25. 28. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932014 INVEST 10/21/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932014 INVEST 10/21/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932014 INVEST 10/21/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)