* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/21/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 46 44 46 48 52 55 60 60 58 56 52 49 V (KT) LAND 50 46 44 46 48 52 55 60 60 58 56 52 49 V (KT) LGE mod 50 46 43 41 40 40 42 45 47 48 46 40 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 27 22 17 15 9 4 0 5 14 22 20 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 0 0 -1 1 -3 -2 -1 3 4 8 11 SHEAR DIR 234 239 235 221 221 225 111 293 301 285 277 288 288 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.2 25.9 24.6 22.8 20.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 148 148 148 146 145 142 135 123 110 93 69 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -53.5 -53.4 -52.9 -52.8 -52.2 -51.6 -49.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 6 3 1 700-500 MB RH 46 45 46 50 48 48 47 48 50 56 60 59 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 19 18 19 20 23 24 23 24 24 24 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -24 -20 -13 -25 -34 -44 -46 -53 -61 -46 37 153 200 MB DIV 50 22 8 54 20 -4 -5 7 31 20 46 70 35 700-850 TADV 5 5 2 2 1 1 1 2 8 19 43 41 51 LAND (KM) 465 516 573 624 680 782 869 953 1032 1099 1182 1341 1600 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.9 21.3 21.8 22.3 23.3 24.7 26.2 27.8 29.6 31.6 34.0 36.6 LONG(DEG W) 164.0 164.7 165.3 165.9 166.4 167.3 167.8 168.0 167.8 166.9 165.2 162.5 159.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 9 11 14 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 36 37 37 37 32 22 20 18 8 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 11. 9. 7. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 12. 11. 13. 13. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -4. -2. 2. 5. 10. 10. 8. 6. 2. -1. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/21/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/21/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##