* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/21/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 44 45 48 54 58 57 53 45 36 29 33 V (KT) LAND 45 43 44 45 48 54 58 57 53 45 36 29 33 V (KT) LGE mod 45 43 41 40 40 41 44 45 45 40 33 25 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 22 17 17 13 5 1 14 22 29 29 20 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 0 0 0 0 -3 3 6 6 17 22 SHEAR DIR 234 228 226 227 213 154 37 295 287 277 309 308 299 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.8 26.7 25.3 24.3 23.1 21.3 19.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 150 149 148 146 142 131 117 106 95 78 64 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -52.1 -51.8 -50.5 -49.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 7 5 3 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 43 48 48 44 47 45 47 55 61 61 61 57 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 18 20 22 25 25 26 25 24 24 29 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -6 -15 -29 -26 -36 -46 -69 -64 -42 -32 21 120 200 MB DIV 8 55 24 -20 -2 0 17 41 18 57 43 53 57 700-850 TADV 5 3 1 0 1 1 1 15 32 51 69 67 67 LAND (KM) 594 650 711 757 811 905 1012 1080 1141 1210 1294 1500 1803 LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.3 21.8 22.5 23.2 24.9 26.8 28.6 30.4 32.1 33.6 35.7 38.0 LONG(DEG W) 165.4 166.0 166.7 167.2 167.6 168.1 168.3 167.7 166.5 164.7 162.3 159.0 155.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 15 19 19 HEAT CONTENT 42 38 34 26 22 20 18 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 12. 10. 7. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -7. -13. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 11. 12. 11. 11. 10. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 4. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. 0. 3. 9. 13. 12. 8. 0. -9. -16. -12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/21/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/21/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##