* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922014 10/21/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 42 42 41 40 41 43 50 56 52 44 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 42 42 41 40 41 43 50 56 52 44 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 43 44 46 48 50 55 61 65 64 58 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 27 28 32 32 34 25 22 21 16 7 29 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -7 -4 -3 -3 -1 0 1 0 3 4 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 347 343 343 353 349 338 310 302 288 272 325 359 351 SST (C) 23.7 23.9 24.1 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.3 24.2 24.2 23.9 23.0 22.2 21.5 POT. INT. (KT) 96 96 96 95 95 96 97 98 99 98 92 87 84 ADJ. POT. INT. 84 82 82 80 80 81 83 85 87 86 81 77 74 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -55.1 -55.7 -56.3 -56.8 -57.6 -58.7 -59.0 -58.9 -58.9 -58.3 -57.7 -57.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 4 3 700-500 MB RH 49 50 51 52 52 53 49 48 50 52 51 49 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 22 21 20 18 16 14 13 12 13 15 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 164 167 162 162 150 132 118 81 76 75 60 23 -9 200 MB DIV -17 -13 0 -15 -23 -1 -11 -10 8 7 -1 -7 -9 700-850 TADV 3 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 3 11 12 6 4 LAND (KM) 1604 1657 1711 1728 1745 1728 1663 1528 1351 1169 1081 1124 1069 LAT (DEG N) 33.6 33.4 33.2 33.1 33.0 32.6 32.1 31.6 31.5 32.2 33.7 35.5 37.1 LONG(DEG W) 28.6 29.4 30.1 30.4 30.6 30.6 30.1 28.8 26.8 24.2 22.1 21.3 21.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 4 2 2 2 5 7 10 12 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 0. -5. -7. -9. -8. -9. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 18. 22. 26. 29. 30. 31. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -13. -14. -12. -11. -13. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 3. 10. 16. 12. 4. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922014 INVEST 10/21/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922014 INVEST 10/21/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED