* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/21/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 33 35 39 41 40 37 28 20 18 24 V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 33 35 39 41 40 37 28 20 18 24 V (KT) LGE mod 35 31 29 28 27 27 28 28 28 24 19 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 23 22 16 11 5 9 23 24 28 20 29 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 3 8 12 23 19 SHEAR DIR 230 233 237 224 202 134 282 296 285 285 304 285 266 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.1 25.7 24.5 23.2 21.5 19.5 17.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 150 149 147 146 135 121 109 95 78 63 64 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -52.0 -50.7 -49.0 -47.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 10 10 8 6 4 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 47 43 46 46 46 50 60 63 61 59 44 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 18 19 20 21 22 22 23 23 22 24 29 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -22 -37 -39 -47 -42 -56 -74 -53 -31 39 178 274 200 MB DIV 45 26 -5 -6 -17 17 6 30 22 62 46 59 15 700-850 TADV 10 5 1 0 1 0 6 19 33 62 62 88 17 LAND (KM) 622 700 783 836 898 988 1053 1111 1192 1304 1483 1727 1781 LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.4 21.9 22.8 23.6 25.8 28.0 29.9 31.7 33.5 35.5 37.7 40.1 LONG(DEG W) 165.7 166.5 167.4 167.9 168.4 168.6 167.9 166.7 165.2 163.2 160.9 157.9 154.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 13 15 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 42 38 33 23 19 21 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 17. 17. 15. 12. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 1. -4. -11. -15. -19. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 8. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -2. 0. 4. 7. 5. 2. -7. -15. -17. -11. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/21/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/21/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##