* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922014 10/22/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 43 43 43 43 44 46 53 55 48 35 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 43 43 43 43 44 46 53 55 48 35 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 43 44 46 47 51 57 62 65 62 55 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 28 31 33 35 28 25 20 22 8 19 52 79 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 -4 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 2 3 0 -11 -11 SHEAR DIR 342 344 353 347 341 323 300 293 296 322 13 18 16 SST (C) 23.8 23.9 24.0 24.1 24.2 24.2 24.2 24.3 24.2 24.2 23.9 23.7 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 95 95 95 95 95 94 95 97 98 98 95 91 92 ADJ. POT. INT. 83 81 81 80 80 78 80 83 85 85 82 77 78 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -56.1 -56.8 -57.3 -57.7 -58.5 -58.6 -58.6 -58.2 -57.8 -56.7 -56.3 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 51 52 53 51 51 49 45 43 39 37 39 41 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 20 18 17 15 13 13 12 14 14 10 6 850 MB ENV VOR 173 162 164 149 140 119 100 98 101 101 88 69 30 200 MB DIV -2 1 -12 -14 -10 -13 -19 -5 -9 -10 -37 2 -79 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 -2 0 10 7 1 1 LAND (KM) 1627 1682 1738 1770 1802 1836 1819 1754 1615 1442 1333 1324 1337 LAT (DEG N) 33.4 33.5 33.6 33.6 33.5 33.5 33.3 32.8 32.0 31.6 32.2 32.8 32.6 LONG(DEG W) 29.0 29.6 30.2 30.6 31.0 31.4 31.3 30.8 29.6 27.8 26.2 25.7 26.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 5 4 3 3 1 2 5 7 7 6 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -3. -6. -7. -7. -11. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 16. 20. 24. 28. 30. 30. 29. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -10. -10. -13. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 13. 15. 8. -5. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922014 INVEST 10/22/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922014 INVEST 10/22/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)