* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932014 10/22/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 35 36 41 43 45 46 48 49 48 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 35 30 28 27 27 31 33 34 33 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 31 31 28 27 27 27 32 34 35 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 22 19 16 16 10 12 11 18 16 17 15 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -1 1 -2 -2 -5 -5 -2 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 239 247 250 247 246 273 194 182 194 214 207 232 238 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.9 29.8 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 156 154 153 151 150 152 152 159 166 164 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 143 141 138 138 136 135 137 137 146 154 151 145 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -52.3 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 8 8 6 8 7 9 7 8 6 8 700-500 MB RH 79 77 76 73 72 68 65 60 53 47 43 39 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 12 11 11 10 11 10 9 10 13 15 18 850 MB ENV VOR 69 72 72 76 78 73 87 89 76 58 64 42 52 200 MB DIV 49 51 61 47 47 31 0 19 -12 -1 25 21 25 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -1 -4 -1 -3 0 -5 0 3 0 1 LAND (KM) 103 95 100 71 44 -59 -145 -95 -19 87 256 292 290 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 4 5 5 4 4 4 6 7 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 19 18 18 21 27 31 48 82 87 58 58 84 104 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 11. 13. 15. 16. 18. 19. 18. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932014 INVEST 10/22/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932014 INVEST 10/22/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932014 INVEST 10/22/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)