* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/22/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 33 35 37 43 45 41 35 24 18 24 30 V (KT) LAND 35 33 33 35 37 43 45 41 35 24 18 24 30 V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 32 31 31 31 33 32 28 22 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 22 18 12 7 9 18 29 40 35 26 47 62 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 2 2 -2 0 4 -1 3 4 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 235 246 242 223 202 265 293 287 289 312 308 287 260 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 27.7 26.0 24.6 23.6 21.9 19.5 17.3 15.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 148 148 146 142 124 110 100 83 65 67 67 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 -54.5 -53.2 -52.1 -50.1 -49.1 -49.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 10 10 9 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 43 46 47 45 52 62 66 65 66 58 61 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 15 16 17 18 18 19 20 20 20 26 31 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -33 -30 -34 -44 -38 -79 -80 -68 -4 171 203 184 200 MB DIV 18 5 5 -8 -2 -4 34 9 54 61 75 78 44 700-850 TADV 9 -1 1 7 7 4 16 35 49 57 74 127 25 LAND (KM) 651 716 788 851 924 1037 1140 1221 1286 1444 1725 1711 1468 LAT (DEG N) 21.6 22.3 23.0 24.0 24.9 27.1 29.6 31.6 33.1 35.1 37.7 41.0 44.7 LONG(DEG W) 166.1 166.8 167.4 167.9 168.3 168.4 167.5 166.0 164.0 161.4 158.2 153.1 146.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 12 12 12 13 16 22 28 29 HEAT CONTENT 35 29 23 18 20 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 14. 14. 14. 11. 9. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. -1. -8. -18. -24. -32. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 16. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -3. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 6. 14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. 0. 2. 8. 10. 7. 0. -11. -17. -11. -5. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/22/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/22/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##