* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092014 10/22/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 35 40 44 47 51 52 55 55 55 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 31 28 27 31 35 36 39 39 39 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 29 27 27 31 35 40 42 43 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 18 14 14 16 6 13 12 16 14 13 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 2 0 -2 -3 -6 -5 -3 0 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 243 249 246 237 268 205 179 175 209 218 221 248 260 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.2 29.7 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 155 153 151 151 150 153 162 165 163 161 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 142 140 138 137 137 136 138 148 151 148 145 144 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 8 8 7 8 7 9 8 9 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 80 78 74 73 70 69 67 64 57 46 43 42 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 11 10 11 11 10 12 12 16 17 20 850 MB ENV VOR 76 72 73 83 84 81 87 82 86 66 49 51 40 200 MB DIV 52 54 55 48 55 45 26 19 -1 16 19 9 22 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -6 -1 0 -2 -3 -4 -2 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 89 88 58 30 -26 -128 -78 39 160 278 300 318 354 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.2 18.8 18.6 18.5 18.5 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 92.6 92.1 91.5 91.0 90.4 89.4 88.2 87.1 86.0 84.9 84.0 83.2 82.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 23 10 20 36 81 62 56 59 78 103 112 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -2. -1. 2. 2. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 10. 14. 17. 21. 22. 25. 25. 25. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092014 NINE 10/22/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092014 NINE 10/22/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092014 NINE 10/22/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)