* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922014 10/22/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 45 45 46 47 48 54 58 54 51 46 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 45 45 46 47 48 54 58 54 51 46 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 44 45 47 50 54 60 65 68 67 62 Storm Type SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 31 31 35 31 24 23 22 13 13 36 26 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -3 -5 -3 0 0 2 5 5 -3 4 0 SHEAR DIR 340 348 345 337 332 301 303 290 341 8 21 360 360 SST (C) 23.8 23.9 23.9 24.0 24.0 24.1 24.3 24.4 24.7 25.2 25.8 25.9 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 94 95 94 95 94 94 97 99 102 106 112 111 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 80 81 80 80 80 79 82 85 88 93 98 97 97 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -56.3 -56.9 -57.2 -57.7 -58.5 -58.8 -58.4 -58.0 -56.7 -56.0 -55.8 -55.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 52 51 53 53 54 47 41 37 31 27 31 32 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 19 18 16 14 13 12 15 16 13 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 166 173 161 146 127 92 92 90 103 102 80 52 36 200 MB DIV -2 -12 -3 -1 -5 -27 -18 -30 -19 -48 -13 -29 -23 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -2 3 -1 0 2 2 LAND (KM) 1632 1692 1752 1786 1819 1858 1849 1788 1692 1551 1348 1153 1103 LAT (DEG N) 33.5 33.7 33.9 33.9 33.9 33.8 33.4 32.4 31.0 29.6 28.2 27.0 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 29.0 29.6 30.2 30.6 31.0 31.5 31.6 31.4 31.0 30.1 28.5 26.9 26.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 3 2 4 6 7 9 10 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -5. -5. -9. -11. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 27. 28. 28. 28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -11. -9. -8. -11. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 14. 18. 14. 11. 6. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922014 INVEST 10/22/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922014 INVEST 10/22/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)